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2007 March 14, 11:10 (Wednesday)
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07PHNOMPENH418_a
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CONFIDENTIAL
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CONFIDENTIAL
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1. (SBU) Summary. Cambodian Center for Human Rights (CCHR) President Kem Sokha's March 11 announcement that he is reentering politics by forming a new political party is not a surprise, except with respect to the timing of the announcement coming before April 1 elections. Many observers from civil society and politics had been expecting him to enter politics but few expected that he would make the announcement before the upcoming nationwide commune elections. Most observers agreed that this is a gain for Kem Sokha but a loss for civil society and risks further damage to Cambodia's already divided opposition. Civil society leaders agree that the timing of the announcement was probably designed to do maximum damage to the opposition Sam Rainsy Party (SRP) in the upcoming elections by causing potential Kem Sokha supporters to stay home -- although it remains an open question how Kem Sokha benefits if the CPP wins even more seats at the SRP's expense. End Summary.
Kem Sokha Announces a New Political Party ----------------------------------------- 2. (U) On March 11, Kem Sokha announced that he would reenter politics by forming his own political party, confirming persisent rumors since his January 2006 release from prison that the human rights leader would return to the political scene. Kem Sokha noted that he would officially step down as the leader of the Cambodian Center for Human Rights (CCHR) in May, and that his decision was predicated on an outpouring of popular support for his return. The announcement signals a further splintering of the democratic opposition parties in Cambodia, and raises questions about Kem Sokha's motives. Kem Sokha and key opposition leader Sam Rainsy have had an uneasy relationship since the CCHR leader began flirting with the idea of returning to politics after seeing his popularity soar following his December 31, 2005 arrest. The two leaders have met sporadically since Sokha's subsequent release and Rainsy's return to Cambodia, and have discussed the possibility of joining forces. Relations between the two men have soured over the past year and rumors of a Kem Sokha announcement of a new party have been rife for several months. There appeared to be tacit understanding between Sokha and Rainsy, however, that the CCHR leader would not go public on his political future until after the commune elections. The announcement on March 11 is oddly timed, as Kem Sokha cannot field any candidates, and has left many observers scratching their heads. Good for Kem Sokha; Bad for Democracy ------------------------------------- 3. (C) Dr. Kek Galabru, President of the human rights NGO LICADHO, commented that she was afraid that Sokha's reentering politics would divide the voices of democracy in Cambodia. She said that she had discussed with Sokha and Sam Rainsy and his wife Saumura the idea that Rainsy and Sokha might joining forces to create a united front to oppose the ruling Cambodian People's Party (CPP), but had gotten little positive response. Although Sokha and Rainsy appeared to be willing to unite, Saumura did not seem prepared to put personal ambitions aside. (Comment: This tracks with our reading of the dynamic as well; Rainsy has repeatedly told us that he would gladly welcome Kem Sokha in his party and that if the latter proved the leader of choice within the party and was the person deemed by polling as most likely to unseat Prime Minister Hun Sen, Rainsy would happily step aside. Saumura, however, has always been wary of Kem Sokha's ambitions. She appears not to trust the CCHR leader, believing that he may be being pushed directly and/or indirectly by the CPP as a tool against Rainsy. End Comment.) Concerning Sokha's widely published comments that no existing political party was truly democratic and that in his party the leader would not have total control, Galabru thought this was an obvious jab at the SRP's internal democratization efforts and the behind-the-scenes power Saumura has wielded over the SRP. 4. (SBU) Thun Saray, President of the human rights group ADHOC, commented that Sokha's return to politics is a reenactment of his leaving civil society in the early 1990s to join politics. Saray opined that although Sokha has credibility with the public, his leaving the Cambodian Center for Human Rights (CCHR) is bad for the credibility of human rights organizations. He agreed with Kek Galabru that Sokha's comment about existing political parties not being internally democratic was indeed meant as an attack at SRP's internal democratization program. Saray said that Cambodian opposition parties have a history of attacking one another PHNOM PENH 00000418 002 OF 003 instead of the CPP; the timing of Sokha's announcement being geared towards stealing votes from the SRP fits this historical pattern. Where is the Money? ------------------- 5. (SBU) Theary Seng, President of the Center of Social Development, thought Sokha's announcement was a step back for democracy. She said that Sokha would find that he was more influential as a human rights activist than as a politician. Her biggest concern was where Kem Sokha would obtain the necessary funds to start and sustain his party. As a Cambodian-American, Seng mentioned that Sokha's claim that he was obtaining most of his funds from Cambodian-Americans was not true. She opined that a strong network is necessary to build a proper funding base in the U.S.; she thought that it was improbable that he had such a network in the U.S. On the other hand, she commented that she had heard that a wealthy Cambodian businessman had offered to help fund Sokha's party, although she did not have a name of this individual. On the timing of the announcement, she admitted that she had not thought very much about it but offered that Sokha had timed his announcement to coincide with the lead up to the commune elections. She noted that Kem Sokha's announcement creates confusion among opposition leaders and helps the ruling party. SRP Not Surprised ----------------- 6. (C) SRP's Secretary General Mu Sochua and National Assembly Whip Son Chhay were not surprised at Kem Sokha's announcement; both claim they were aware that Kem Sokha was planning to go ahead with his own party. Son Chhay allowed that Kem Sokha had contacted him to alert the SRP MP in advance of the announcement; Son Chhay said that Kem Sokha's decision would not make much difference in the April 1 elections. Son Chhay noted that Constitutional Council member Son Soubert would likely be one of the people supporting the new party, as Kem Sokha would probably accord more respect to the Son Sann party of Son Soubert's father, having worked with Son Sann in the past. Both SRP figures noted that Kem Sokha was faced with the loss of USG financial support for CCHR and wanted a new platform by which he could continue his real objective -- which, they say, has always been a return to politics. 7. (U) In a press interview, Kem Sokha responded to the issue of why he was not joining with the Sam Rainsy Party by declaring that the SRP does not follow democratic principles. He added that the SRP is managed by a single individual, and also stated that the SRP is in conflict with other political parties. Kem Sokha's party, he continued, will cooperate with all the other political parties in the national interest and will not view any other party as its enemy.
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9. (C) The inability of Sam Rainsy and Kem Sokha to overcome their differences and add a sense of direction to Cambodia's democratic opposition in the advance of the 2008 national elections is unfortunate but not surprising. In Cambodian politics, personality and ego reign supreme. Kem Sokha's announcement of a decision to start his own party was the easy part; the difficult part will be the development of a party structure on a national level. We understand that the CCHR leader plans to use participant information and networks developed through CCHR's public forums as a basis for establishing a party structure. It is likely that he will also tap existing SRP officials; SRP MP Keo Remy [See: Government Mouthpieces Have Roots in Opposition] has complained to us on numerous occasions about Rainsy's
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