Paris Peace Accords 23 Oct. 1991

Saturday, January 25, 2014

Planet Hilary

Planet Hillary

The gravitational pull of a possible 2016 campaign is bringing all the old Clinton characters into her orbit. Can she make the stars align, or will chaos prevail?
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Photo illustration by Jesse Lenz; Hillary Clinton: Stan Honda/AFP/Getty Images. Black Hole: M. Weiss/NASA. Nebula: M. Livio/ESA/NASA. Dark Matter, Vortex and Supernova: NASA. Cluster: Karel Teuwen. Quasar: ESA/NASA. Comet: ESA.
Hillary Clinton was nodding solemnly to the mother of a 9/11 victim when Huma Abedin, standing across the room, called out, “Let’s load!” to the staff members and bodyguards. The former secretary of state had yet to pick up her award from the Voices of September 11th, but her entourage was already preparing to shuttle her off to the next event, a benefit for God’s Love We Deliver, which was co-hosted by the designer Michael Kors and where she would sit next to the Vogue editor and former Obama bundler Anna Wintour. It was just another hectic fall evening in Manhattan for Clinton, and she was keeping herself busy as usual in the “is she or isn’t she” interim. There were paid speeches to give (at $200,000 a pop) to the American Society of Travel Agents and the National Association of Realtors, filled with the wisdom gleaned from being the nation’s top diplomat (“leadership is a team sport” was one favorite; “you can’t win if you don’t show up” was another). There were awards to receive, like the one from Chatham House, a think tank in London, to which Clinton traveled on a commercial 757 like the one she used to command while working at the State Department. (“That was fun!” she said of the flight.) And there were Beverly Hills galas to attend, which soon turned into schmooze sessions, like the ones with Harvey Weinstein and Richard Plepler and Jeffrey Katzenberg, yet another major Obama bundler.
Through it all, the former first lady/secretary of state/likely Democratic candidate for president seemed gracious and untroubled, and yet it was hard not to feel an enjoy-it-while-it-lasts sort of sympathy for Clinton. She had, after all, spent four years at the State Department displaying great political and diplomatic and managerial skill, and in that process shed much of the baggage generally associated with the Clintons. Yet that very organizational meshugas already threatened, once again, to entangle her. Before Clinton had even left the State Department, last February, Ready for Hillary, a political-action committee supported by some of her old pals, had emerged. Emily’s List, another PAC, introduced its Madam President initiative. While working on Barack Obama’s re-election, Jim Messina, the savvy operative, had already courted Bill Clinton. There would even be Correct the Record, an initiative designed to defend Clinton against media attacks. Conservative groups had begun calling her still-presumptive campaign the Queen’s Machine. They had a point.

Center: Hillary Clinton: Anthony Behar/Sipa, via Associated Press. Potus Patrol: McKenna: Reed Saxon/Associated Press. Clinton: Ethan Miller/Getty Images. Flournoy: Getty Images. Chelsea’s People: Bazbaz: Carlos Delgado/Times Publishing Company. Braverman: Jemal Countess/Getty Images. Clinton: Peter Kramer/Getty Images. The Inner Circle: Abedin: Pablo Martinez Monsivais/Associated Press. Reines: Drew Angerer/Getty Images. Marshall: Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images. Mills: Angela Weiss/Getty Images.
Unlike Barack Obama, who will leave the White House with more or less the same handful of friends he came in with, the Clintons occupy their own unique and formidable and often exhausting place in American politics. Over the decades, they’ve operated like an Arkansas tumbleweed, collecting friends and devotees from Bill Clinton’s kindergarten class to Yale Law School to Little Rock to the White House to the Senate and beyond. James Carville has compared the Clinton world, perhaps not so originally, to an onion (it’s safest, he has said, to exist in the third or fourth layer), while other Clinton staff members, past and present, have an endless litany of other metaphors to make sense of it. One former aide told me that working for the Clintons is like staying at the Hotel California (“You can check out, but you can never leave”); another person compared it to prison (“Not everyone can adjust to life on the outside”). Others compared it to a marriage, one as complicated and built on blind loyalty as Bill and Hillary’s own. One former aide noted, succinctly, “People want to feel important, and the Clintons don’t snub people very well.”

This may represent Hillary Clinton’s biggest challenge for a hypothetical 2016 campaign. How can Clinton, who is 66, make American voters think about something other than her fraught personal and political past? How can she present herself as someone hungry to serve rather than as someone entitled to office? It starts, perhaps, by figuring out how to deal with many of those characters assembled along the way. “I love Barbra Streisand,” says Donna Brazile, the Democratic strategist who worked on both of Bill Clinton’s campaigns, “but Beyoncé is what’s happening now. I love Peter, Paul and Mary, but she needs to be Justin Timberlake. She can’t afford to kick people out, but she can afford to let new people come in. I realize that’s uncomfortable.” Put another way, the members of America’s most dysfunctional extended political family are about to meet a lot of young new operatives who don’t work in the same way. The Clintons may have come to power when an offensive election strategy meant digging up files of opposition research, but presidential politics are increasingly the province of number-crunching quants and code-breaking hackers. “The challenge is to create ways for people to help but also to figure out who the next generation is,” says Steve Elmendorf, deputy campaign manager on John Kerry’s 2004 presidential run. “Even David Plouffe is a generation removed. Who is the 32-year-old version of David?”

It’s an organizational conundrum that even members of Hillary Clinton’s innermost circle already concede. “The Next Generation launched a coup to dispose [of] the old fogies,” Philippe I. Reines, Clinton’s principal gatekeeper, jokingly told me this summer, when I asked if he had joined her post-State personal staff. (Reines, who worked for Chelsea Clinton in 2008, self-effacingly included himself in the Old Generation.) The fault line, it seemed, was drawn at the 2008 campaign. A few months later, over lunch near the White House, Reines laughed as a couple of meddlesome emails popped up on his BlackBerry from two older Clinton loyalists who had re-emerged since she left State. In between bites of a shrimp cocktail, he called these noodges “space cowboys,” referring to the 2000 film in which Clint Eastwood, Tommy Lee Jones and Donald Sutherland play aging pilots who reunite to disarm a Soviet-era satellite on one last mission. (Reines was quick to add that these old-timers ultimately saved the world.)

Brock: Marty Lederhandler/Associated Press. Strider: Jeremy M. Lange for The New York Times. Davis: Alex Wong/Getty Images. Lockhart: Associated Press. Lewis: Leslie Kossoff/Associated Press.
Several people close to Clinton have already discussed installing someone to play the role of “chief listener,” whose job would be to make these well-meaning old-timers feel “heard” while simultaneously buffering their noise — a position that didn’t exist in 2008. If she decides to run, says Melanne Verveer, Clinton’s White House chief of staff, “the next question is how is she going to organize this group of people” who all want to contribute. The complication, of course, will be doing so without creating the vitriol and noise that scuttled her last campaign. “I think she understands she has to be, and will be, welcoming to new people, especially people with technical expertise and know-how,” one former Obama aide says. “But the knives will be out from people protecting their place in the world.”

If there is one thing that Clinton allies want to make sure you know — and will keep reminding you, over and over, in interviews — it’s that Hillary Clinton’s State Department was run nothing like her chaotic 2008 presidential campaign. When Clinton accepted the job as secretary of state, she did so with the understanding that she could bring some of her most loyal people — called the Royal Council by one aide — along with her. (“Obama didn’t realize that extended to the cafeteria workers,” quipped one person familiar with the confirmation process.) Clinton’s hires included a mix of longtime advisers, like Cheryl D. Mills, but she also brought in new people and embraced the existing State Department staff. During meetings, the secretary would sit on a silk-upholstered couch in her Foggy Bottom office, deferring to senior and junior aides to hear their opinions first.

The cloistered State Department offered Clinton a chance to define herself away from her husband and to shed the stench of managerial dysfunction that still lingered from the campaign. Legally she could not participate in fund-raising or political activity, and so the period, noted one staff member, seemed like a quiet four-year pause. “I had a lot of anxiety before I took the job,” Thomas R. Nides, who served as deputy secretary of state for management and resources under Clinton, told me. “I had never worked for them before, and I didn’t know what I was getting myself into. Was every day going to be the outside claqueurs coming in and asking, ‘What’s going on?’ and wanting to be a part of everything?” Nides, who is now vice chairman of Morgan Stanley, said he was impressed by Clinton’s ability to shut out the opinions of old political aides. “To the Clintons’ credit, they communicate with a lot of people, but I think she has a filter now — to filter some of that out of her head and basically take the advice she is getting from her team.”

The job of keeping out the claqueurs now falls partly on Reines, who is known in the Clinton world as slightly paranoid, often hilarious and somewhat quirky. He is 44 and lives in a Dupont Circle apartment with his cats Uday and Qusay, named after the thuggish sons of Saddam Hussein. He once accidentally stuck his fingers in my water glass over breakfast to clear a stain from his dress shirt. At lunch, he orders an Arnold Palmer and a Diet Coke, seemingly just because. He also instills a healthy dose of terror in the extended Clinton family that his boss is said to appreciate. Almost everyone I talked to dutifully emailed Reines to ask for permission before they spoke to me. “If Philippe told me not to talk to you, I wouldn’t have talked to you,” Lanny Davis, a lawyer who served as a special White House counsel under Clinton, told me. (Reines, for the record, said he named his cats Uday and Qusay merely because they’re brothers and “were little terrorists when they were kittens.”)

2008 Victors: Mook: Douglas Graham/Roll Call, via Getty Images. Cecil: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters. 2008 Victims: Grunwald: Richard Ellis/Getty Images. Penn: Win McNamee/Getty Images. Solis Doyle: Chris Greenberg/Associated Press. Wolfson: A. De Vos/Patrick McMullan, via Associated Press. The People Who Do All the Work: Russo: Jessica Hill/Associated Press. Merrill: Jessica Zafra.
At breakfast, at lunch, on emails, on conference calls, over dumplings at Pei Wei Asian Diner and in meetings with Clinton’s inner sanctum, Reines is often joined by his protégé and Clinton’s press secretary, Nick Merrill. Merrill, who is fresh-faced and plays the perfect good cop to Reines’s bad cop, is also a junior Clinton lifer. Together, the combined forces of Nickilippe project a tightly knit, loyal-till-death image that’s already reflected in Clinton’s personal staff. Until recently, her seven personal aides worked out of a tiny Washington office (“smaller than my first N.Y.C. apartment,” one aide said in an email) on Connecticut Avenue. Soon, though, she will move Merrill and the others, whom she pays out of her own pocket, into a Manhattan office, which, contrary to previous reports, will not be in the Bill, Hillary & Chelsea Clinton Foundation offices in the Time & Life Building. Ted Widmer, a former speechwriter for President Clinton, is on hand to assist with writing Hillary’s memoir about her time at the State Department, set to be published by Simon & Schuster this summer. Reines will presumably work on the book rollout and tour, which could serve as a campaign prologue.

Huma Abedin, who began her career as a White House aide while studying at George Washington University, serves as Clinton’s chief of staff. Abedin is, of course, married to Anthony Weiner. (Bill Clinton officiated the ceremony.) After Weiner’s latest round of sexting was revealed, Clinton’s inner circle rallied to support Abedin while protecting their boss’s image; some of them encouraged Abedin to consider divorce; others, including past advisers outside the inner circle, have suggested that she be moved off the campaign (um, if there is a campaign) to a role at the foundation headquarters. Instead, in a move that aides say revealed Clinton’s unflinching allegiance — and perhaps a level of sympathy only she could feel — Clinton kept Abedin attached at the hip. She “inspires loyalty, and she’s loyal back,” another person close to the inner circle says.

Clinton, who has done her fair share of damage control, seems less concerned with things like the potential embarrassment of Abedin’s spouse than with building up a system that keeps out the “night stalkers,” as termed by one former aide. In addition to the chief listener, one strategy that has sprung up appears to be to spread enough work around to make many in the old guard — from Little Rock friends to survivors of the 2008 campaign — feel useful and busy. One project is Ready for Hillary, which has become a kind of clearinghouse for people angling to get in early with the hypothetical campaign. Former White House aides, like Ann Lewis, Craig T. Smith (whose relationship with the Clintons goes back to Arkansas) and Harold M. Ickes (who took care of so many dust-ups during the White House years that he was known as the director of the sanitation department) have advised, raised money or visited battleground states on behalf of the PAC.

But some of the Democratic Party’s deepest-pocketed donors have described Ready for Hillary as a make-work program for former Clinton hands. From its inception, the group didn’t exactly fit everyone’s definition of a sophisticated, modern-day apparatus. It was started by Adam Parkhomenko, who worked as an assistant to Patti Solis Doyle in 2008 until Solis Doyle (who coined the term “Hillaryland” back in the White House days) was ousted as campaign manager. Just out of high school, the earnest Parkhomenko started working for a Hillary-related PAC and has been trying to get Clinton elected president for much of his adult life. (He also works a couple of nights a month as a reserve officer with the Metropolitan Police Department in Washington.) The group raised $4 million last year, in part, by hawking iPhone cases with the black-and-white “Texts From Hillary” image of Clinton looking at her BlackBerry onboard a C-17 to Tripoli. Last month, Ready for Hillary held a low-dollar fund-raiser (tickets cost $20.16) at a K Street restaurant that featured photos with a cutout image of Clinton and a cash bar serving a gin and tonic called the Ceiling Breaker. The group scheduled a “kickoff” event this month in Des Moines.

Magaziner: Phil McCarten/Reuters. Blumenthal: Robert Giroux/Reuters. Podesta: Pablo Martinez Monsivais/Associated Press. Ickes: Alex Wong/Getty Images.
One Clinton supporter told me that the very specter of Smith in a swing state is a sign that the old buddy system is still alive and well. To his credit, Smith (whose firm is paid $10,000 a month by Ready for Hillary) said he recognizes that “if there is a campaign, it’s got to be [made up of] people who know how to run a campaign of 2016.” In an effort to step up its grass-roots organizing, Ready for Hillary has already signed up numerous 20-something newcomers. It has also brought on the consulting company 270 Strategies, run by political operatives, including Jeremy Bird and Mitch Stewart, who were largely credited with Obama’s ground strategy in 2008 and 2012.

Where things get thorny, though, is that Priorities USA, the big-money group that helped get Obama elected, is situating itself as the dominant money-raiser in 2016. (Sean Sweeney, a founder of Priorities USA, says he supports Ready for Hillary’s “important” mission.) In fact, two Obama operatives, Messina and Buffy Wicks, have already signed on to Priorities to turn it into a big-money behemoth devoted to a Clinton candidacy, and some Ready for Hillary supporters have accused Priorities of already trying to take credit for getting their candidate elected. (Never mind that the election is more than two years away and that there’s technically no candidate yet.) Certainly Wicks and Messina offer something that the Clinton old guard doesn’t — a link to the network of donors who supported Obama. But also crucial is the fact that neither has ever worked for the Clintons, which allows them to navigate the waters more easily. They don’t carry the baggage, for instance, of other old friends who helped get Obama elected. David Axelrod, in particular, was approached by Solis Doyle as early as 2006 to join the Hillary campaign, and his decision to sign on with Obama was the first real signal that the Illinois senator might create a problem. Among Obama aides, there’s a sense that Bill Clinton never quite forgave him. “The Clintons make you feel like you’re part of their family; that’s just who they are,” says Brazile, whose neutrality during the 2008 Democratic primaries was seen by numerous Clinton hands as an act of betrayal. “Try divorcing them. I did, and oh, my God, that’s not easy. I felt like I had broken up with my best lover.”

It’s not just the rogue friends and former staff members who present potential problems. In the past, the Royal Council hasn’t always gotten along so well with President Clinton’s advisers, referred to sardonically by Hillary’s staff members in White House as “the White Boys.” The tensions have ebbed and flowed over the years but reached a low in 2007, when there was an early tug-of-war about how the campaign should utilize, and dote on, the former president. Recently, more existential differences have surfaced. People close to Bill Clinton have told me repeatedly that it irks them that Democrats don’t talk about the dignified, slimmed-down, silver-haired former president with the same reverence Republicans give Ronald Reagan. According to those people, Bill Clinton, who is conscious of the demands of a presidential race and what another loss would do to his own legacy and philanthropic work, is deferential about whether his wife should run. When people shout at him that they’re ready for Hillary, he simply responds with a “Thank you,” rather than asking for their support as he did leading up to the 2008 campaign. (That doesn’t mean he’s not curious. When Ready for Hillary held a seminar for donors at Le Parker Meridien hotel last fall to discuss what it would take to win in 2016, Bill Clinton personally checked in with an attendee to ask what was being discussed and who was there.)

Efforts to cement Bill’s legacy appear somewhat unaligned with Hillary’s forward-looking team. (At a recent book party in New York, Bill started his speech by saying, “I’m not much for living in the past, but I do think it’s worth going back to what we’ve faced,” and then proceeded to talk for 20 minutes about electoral politics and his career, dating to 1968.) Denizens of Hillaryland often express exasperation that even after successfully serving in the Senate and as secretary of state, their boss is still so closely identified with her husband. “It’s my pet peeve when they’re described as an entity,” Geoffrey Garin, who stepped in as a chief strategist after Mark Penn’s disastrous run in ’08, told me. “Obviously they are married and do things together, but they are two separate people with two separate identities in political life.”
State Department Wingmen: Nides: Drew Angerer/Getty Images. East-Wing Divas: Verveer: Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images. Lieberman: Greg Gibson/Associated Press. Caputo: Brad Barket/Getty Images. Obama Buddies: Messina: Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press. Stewart: Jeff Siner/Associated Press. Bird: 270 Strategies. Senate Survivors: Luzzatto: Paul Hosefros/The New York Times.
The center of the orbit has become even more crowded now that Chelsea is in the game. The role of Chelsea, to the annoyance of some longtime Clinton aides — who referred to her as the Child — has become significantly more pronounced. While some loyalists still think of her as a teenager hanging around the Oval Office, she has become a formidable presence at the Bill, Hillary & Chelsea Clinton Foundation. There she has assembled her own team, led by her chief of staff, Bari Lurie, a former White House aide who traveled with Chelsea during the 2008 campaign. She has her own press secretary, Kamyl Bazbaz, who worked for Hillary in 2008.

Chelsea has now ostensibly taken over the foundation, and she wasted little time in putting her stamp on it. She played a key role in the long search for a new chief executive, which ultimately installed her friend and former McKinsey & Company colleague Eric Braverman as the replacement for Bruce Lindsey, who stepped down after working for Bill Clinton for decades. (Lindsey remains the foundation’s chairman.) Braverman, however, soon got a lesson in political bungling when he hired a staffer to help with, among other things, his own publicity. The person he hired turned out to have worked on the eventual botched rollout of the Affordable Care Act, and Braverman was reminded in no uncertain terms that his job was not to seek his own publicity but to complement the Clintons’ mission. (A foundation spokesman denies this.)

Chelsea’s ascent has had perhaps the biggest impact on Doug Band, Bill Clinton’s longtime aide who was for years considered a surrogate son. Band clashed with Chelsea over the running of the foundation, and although he had stepped away from day-to-day operations by the time she arrived, he kept a hand in the Clinton Global Initiative, the philanthropic gathering he helped start. When Chelsea helped initiate an outside audit to review the state of the foundation, including the C.G.I., some staff members viewed the move, in part, as a means to denounce the old guard, most notably her surrogate brother. If that’s what it was, it worked. (Lindsey said any assertion that the audit was personal is false.) Band, who has spent two decades in the Clinton world, is a case study in how treacherous it can be to navigate. He has been accused by several aides of being a source of published rumors insinuating that Chelsea and her husband, Marc Mezvinsky, had marital problems. A person with knowledge of the situation told me Band was not, in fact, the source — and several others said, emphatically, that the couple have a happy, committed relationship. (Band declined to comment for this article.)

In some way, Chelsea’s rise could provide a natural bridge between the Old Generation with its lingering obsessions and grievances — the words “impeachment” and “Whitewater” came up dozens of times in the reporting of this article — and the younger, number-crunching analysts. But Chelsea’s assertiveness at the foundation, while seen as a blessing by her parents, has rubbed others the wrong way. Two longtime employees quit, citing, in part, their frustration with the changed atmosphere since she took over. (Five senior foundation employees who work closely with Chelsea told me she has brought only positive change. An aide also added that the handful of people who have historically called her the Child did so in an endearing way.) But one person with intimate knowledge of Clinton dynamics had a simpler explanation. According to this person, staff members — most notably Band — who were insecure about Chelsea’s power had simply forgotten that they lived “downstairs.”

Stephanopoulos: Charles Sykes/Associated Press. Cuomo: Kris Connor/Getty Images. Myers: Laura Cavanaugh/Getty Images.
That sentiment may be true enough about current Clinton dynamics, but one theory about why they have amassed such a wide network over the years is that, unlike political dynasties such as the Bushes or the Kennedys, they did not come from money. They learned how to keep aides loyal the old-fashioned way, by doing the kinds of thoughtful things that anyone who has worked with the Clintons for any amount of time will tell you about: countless handwritten thank-you notes, remembering staff-member birthdays and letting them bask in their reflected glory. Over the years, it has proved remarkably effective. To mark the 20th anniversary of the start of the first Clinton-Gore campaign, Paul Begala, Carville, John Podesta and Vernon Jordan, among many others, joined Bill and Hillary in Little Rock for a raucous, self-congratulatory reunion weekend. Al Gore called in remotely.
Still, even back in the Arkansas days, the Clintons knew how to ice out some of their more complicated friends. One recent Thursday morning, I stopped by the Little Rock apartment of Betsey Wright, just across the Interstate from the Clinton library on a leafy street lined with well-kept clapboard houses with wide porches and upholstered furniture out front. Around the corner is a Holiday Inn with a restaurant called Camp David (“a hidden treasure with a culinary style surely fit for both presidents and first ladies”; kids eat free). Wright, considered a mastermind behind Clinton’s rise in Arkansas, was among the first in a long line of surrogate family members. She headed rapid response (or what she called “bimbo eruptions”) in the 1992 election and was immortalized by Kathy Bates in the film adaptation of “Primary Colors.” After not joining Clinton’s White House staff, Wright became a lobbyist and eventually returned home and began advocating for prisoners’ rights. In 2009, though, she was arrested on 51 charges of smuggling contraband, including a box cutter and a knife and tattoo needles that were hidden in a bag of Doritos, on a visit to death row. She pleaded not guilty (and, later, no contest to lesser charges) and was released on probation. She did not respond to my many attempts to contact her, including in-person pleas to friends and a note left on her front porch.

People who have known the Clintons the longest have all sorts of theories about how one of the country’s most brilliant political minds could have ended up arrested with a bag of Doritos. She may be an extreme case, but Wright is also, some suggested, a kind of cautionary tale in how the sharp-elbowed business of being a Clinton soldier can scar some people. Wright, one Arkansas friend said, had personal issues; she became a liability — just as Solis Doyle and Penn and Band would later — and the Clintons cut her loose before they moved into the White House. Max Brantley, who is editor of The Arkansas Times and has known the Clintons for decades, told me over gumbo at the Capital Hotel bar in Little Rock that their relationship with Wright, and other aides, was more complicated than their simply rejecting her. “Is it malicious? Or a business decision justified by circumstances?” Brantley said. “Some people get eaten up by the charisma and forget that, in the end, it is a business.”

The problem, in part, is the Clintons’ unique management style. Sitting at a New York coffee shop one afternoon, a person close to the Clintons, whom Nickilippe had not authorized to talk, pulled out a felt-tip pen and drew a triangle and a circle on a white cocktail napkin. The triangle, this person said, represented Obama’s team, with the president on the top and everyone else clearly in their hierarchical place. The circle represented the Clintons, with everyone in a vortex angling for the innermost rings. Over the years, this amorphous setup has led to a fair amount of resentment and infighting. After Solis Doyle was pushed out in 2008, she went to work for the Obama campaign. Begala and Carville heralded Penn’s struggles; Penn has said he sidelined them in the 1996 re-election, though neither was formally involved in the campaign. (Penn notably re-emerged to play a small part in advising President Clinton on his blockbuster keynote speech at the 2012 Democratic National Convention.)

Arkansas Pals: Belvis: Elise Amendola/Associated Press. Lindsey: J. David Ake/AFP/Getty Images. McLarty: Alex Brandon/Associated Press. Friends of Bill: Lasry: Danny Drake/Associated Press. McAuliffe: Charles Norfleet/Getty Images. Bing: Alex J Berliner/Associated Press. Former B.F.F.’s: Wright: John Duricka/Associated Press.
Steve Ricchetti, a deputy chief of staff in the Clinton White House who now works for Vice President Biden, was considered so loyal to the first lady that President Clinton’s staff called him Steve Rodham Ricchetti. Years later, one person close to the president accused Ricchetti of being a source in a controversial 2008 Vanity Fair article about the president’s private life. (Ricchetti declined to comment.) Todd S. Purdum, a former New York Times reporter and the husband of Dee Dee Myers, a White House press secretary under Clinton, wrote that article.

Clinton ran a relatively leak-free operation at State, but as the circle widens, the possibilities for people speaking out of school grows considerably. A recent leak to Politico about a private Clinton strategy session was a “violation” that should serve as a red flag, one Obama aide said. When I asked Ickes why, as an obsessive diarist, he hadn’t written a memoir after he was fired as deputy chief of staff in 1997, he cited loyalty. “As hard as it may be to imagine,” Ickes told me, “there are people who feel loyal to the person they’re serving.” Then he offered a more revealing answer. “The Clintons are still major players in the national political scene, and even if people were inclined to write a book — and I’ve never been inclined that way — they [have to] think the Clintons have a big reach and continue to influence the Democratic Party. Why do I need to get on the wrong side of them?”

Last month, several people close to the Clintons expressed mixed opinions about whether they should cut their vacation short to return to New York and attend the mayoral inauguration of Bill de Blasio, who ran Hillary’s first Senate campaign. But the couple themselves decided to attend the ceremony, which focused on tackling the growing gap between rich and poor. The Clintons’ endorsement of the populist mayor’s vow to take on income inequality struck some people as a shift to the left, perhaps because many voters have forgotten that in an era before he went vegan and wore double Windsor knots, Bill Clinton ran on income inequality and for “the forgotten middle class.” He jogged to a Little Rock McDonald’s and made $35,000 a year, while George H. W. Bush seemed perplexed by a grocery-store scanner. Though it was hard to blame them for forgetting. In order to make the inauguration, the Clintons flew to New York on a private plane from the Dominican Republic, where they were vacationing at Oscar de la Renta’s lavish resort. Hillary had barely taken her seat when the bipartisan chatter began about her new haircut. (“What do you think about Hillary’s bangs? etc.,” Tim Miller, of America Rising, a conservative political-action committee, later emailed.)

The de Blasio inauguration served as a reminder of another nuanced management challenge — her image — that Clinton will face in 2016. In their four decades in public life, as they’ve amassed their chaotic and devoted network, the Clintons have undergone their own extraordinary transformation. This past fall, I watched Hillary try to navigate that tricky course between showing off her public-service chops and delaying the inevitable. Between rubbing elbows with celebrity bundlers, she conducted closed-door presentations to Wall Street bankers, in which she sprinkled phrases like “of all the presidents I’ve known.” She referred to Angela Merkel, the German chancellor and unofficial steward of the European economy, as “a close, personal friend” whom “I’ve known for 20 years.” At a Goldman Sachs event at the Conrad hotel in Lower Manhattan, Clinton answered a question about the Affordable Care Act, a topic she has carefully avoided in public, by denouncing conservatives’ obstruction of the law and playing down the rocky rollout. “They’ll either work it out or they won’t,” she said of the website’s early glitches, which one person interpreted to mean that if Obama couldn’t figure it out, her administration would.

De Blasio: Seth Wenig/Associated Press. Carville: Brian Lindensmith/Patrick McMullan, via Associated Press.
For all the pieces now falling into place, the staff members new and old looking for a seat at the table, the super PACs looking to take credit and the speeches to Wall Street executives (at one session with a hedge fund in 2013, Clinton conceded that any hypothetical candidate would have to decide “toward the middle of next year”) — for all of the inevitable inevitability, perhaps the most important thing Hillary Clinton has to do is not appear like a big-footing Goliath who is finally getting her due. Six years ago, Iowans rejected Clinton, in part, because she seemed too entitled. I remember talking to caucus-goers who were turned off by the “I’m in to win” video that kicked off her candidacy and others who cringed at the loud landing of the Hill-a-Copter, which cost several thousand dollars a day in a state where voters prefer their candidates in Greyhounds.

When I asked David Axelrod what he thought Clinton had to do to win in 2016, he referred to the change she underwent during the last campaign. “She stumbled in 2007, when she was encased in a presumption of inevitability,” Axelrod said. “And she was a very good candidate in 2008 after she got knocked back. Instead of a battleship, she became a speedboat, and she got down on the ground and really, I thought, really connected to the middle-class voters and people who were struggling. People who were struggling connected with her when she looked like she was struggling.”
In her final months as secretary of state in the summer of 2012, when her approval ratings and press coverage were at all-time highs, I asked Bill Clinton what he thought of his wife’s transformed image. Over coffee at the Hilton in Nicosia, Cyprus, he told me the story of having just finished working on the McGovern campaign, his official, and intoxicating, introduction into presidential politics. He said he told Hillary he’d met some of the most prominent people of their generation, and she was by far the most gifted. “You should be in public life,” he told her back then. “She said: ‘Look at how hard-hitting I am. Nobody will ever vote for me for anything.’ ” The former president also gave some thought to her current image. “I think the country sees her the way those of us who know her see her.”

Clinton seemed to be implying that Hillary was gifted and driven and committed to public service and also was someone who genuinely liked to knock back beers in Cartagena and hit the dance floor in Pretoria. And it was sweet to hear the former president talk about his wife this way. But it also seemed like an exercise in magical thinking, as if the intervening decades of public life — with all the attendant drama and political missteps and immense power accrued and wielded — hadn’t complicated that vision of her. Hillary Clinton’s truest challenge, it would seem, is not to make the country glimpse who she was 40 years ago; it’s to recognize that for all the layers that have been added to the onion, there’s still something at the center that’s aching for the rest to be peeled away.


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