A coup in Cambodia
THE Phnom Penh headquarters of Cambodia's royalist party, FUNCINPEC,
presents a dismal sight: party signs lie buckled and broken in the road
outside, the compound wall is pocked with bullet holes, debris from
ransacked offices blows about in the wind and the armed occupants have
stripped the air-conditioners and pulled out the window frames. A giant
portrait of FUNCINPEC's leader, Cambodia's senior prime minister, Prince Norodom Ranariddh, has vanished.
It presents a fitting image of what is left of both FUNCINPEC
and Cambodia's four-year flirtation with democracy after the coup
d'état that the second prime minister, Hun Sen, launched on July 5th.
For two days his troops and tanks turned Phnom Penh into a war zone, as
they exchanged fire with weaker FUNCINPEC forces holed up mainly in a base near the airport and around the homes of two generals. When the smoke cleared, FUNCINPEC's troops were routed and dispersed, its frightened leaders left in disarray. Mr Hun Sen stood as the undisputed ringmaster.
That the coup was not a coup, more a reshuffle, is one line put out by his Cambodian People's Party (CPP).
Mr Hun Sen likes to emphasise that nobody forced Prince Ranariddh to
leave and no one is stopping him from coming back—if he is ready to face
the country's less than independent courts. To further polish his
democratic credentials, he is working hard to persuade FUNCINPEC's
members to organise new leadership elections. These will allow him to
reconvene the National Assembly and set to work on passing legislation
to prepare for elections next year.
But the CPP blitzkreig was not quite the
chance event that Mr Hun Sen, who claims he was holidaying in Vietnam
when it started, likes to imply. Tension between the two prime ministers
dates back to elections in 1993 from which Prince Ranariddh emerged
with the trappings of seniority, while Mr Hun Sen and his formerly
communist CPP kept most of the real power.
The tensions turned dangerous when Prince Ranariddh, weakened by his
own mistakes, tried to fight back. With an eye on elections in 1998, he
first entered an alliance with an opposition leader, Sam Rainsy, Mr Hun
Sen's most vehement critic. To make matters worse, FUNCINPEC
generals tried to achieve military parity with Mr Hun Sen's forces, by
bringing troops and weapons into the capital. The breaking- point seems
to have come with Prince Ranariddh's recent efforts to strike a deal
with elements of the Khmers Rouges.
The challenge was too much and Mr Hun Sen, a far wilier strategist
than the prince, was well prepared to deal with it. A smoothly written
official report on the crisis released on July 10th presents Mr Hun Sen
as saving the government from a bid by the prince to destroy it with
Khmer Rouge help. His ferocious response, however, has undone the years
of tortuous effort, from the Paris peace accords in 1991 to the UN's
$2 billion peacekeeping mission, to provide a form of publicly
accountable government. After this coup, diplomats believe, Cambodia's
government will account only to Mr Hun Sen.
Cambodia is paying a high price for his success. At least 32 people
are known to have died in the fighting, but the final toll is probably
several times higher. Unrestrained shooting in heavily populated
districts of Phnom Penh sent thousands into panic-stricken flight from
the city. The fighting gave way to unrestrained looting by soldiers and
police, followed at a wary distance by civilians, who pillaged houses,
markets, factories and, most conspicuously, Phnom Penh's airport.
The violence will not stop there. The CPP
has named only four royalist leaders, including Prince Ranariddh, that
it wants to put on trial. But one of the four, Ho Sok, was shot dead on
July 9th when in custody in the interior ministry. There are now fears
that a bloody purge of Mr Hun Sen's critics is in the offing. This
threat has proved sufficient to snuff out any potential FUNCINPEC defiance within Phnom Penh. Terrified party MPs
and officials are either stealing out of the country, turning
themselves over to Mr Hun Sen or keeping their mouths firmly shut.
The new order still faces trouble outside the capital. FUNCINPEC's
top general is understood to have escaped Phnom Penh into the
countryside, and others already there are trying to collect troops in
the north-west to start a new resistance movement. As they did before in
the 1980s, the royalists may team up with Khmer Rouge diehards.
But Mr Hun Sen's advisers are confident such resistance can never
flourish without financial and logistical support from outside that
other governments seem unlikely to supply. Pacification is just a matter
of time and money, they say. If they are right and all defiance dies,
Cambodia may have the 46-year-old Hun Sen in charge for another 30
years.
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