TONY ABBOTT had described the shock in February as a “near death” experience: just 17 months into his term as prime minister, his own party had tried to unseat him as leader. He pleaded with his Liberal Party to give him more time, and the party obliged.

But Mr Abbott’s time is now up. On September 14th Malcolm Turnbull resigned as a minister in Mr Abbott’s cabinet and announced he would challenge him for the Liberal leadership. Liberal parliamentarians later voted on the challenge, and deposed Mr Abbott as their leader by 54 votes to 44, making Mr Turnbull Australia's new prime minister.

Mr Abbott’s leadership had looked shaky for some time. For more than a year his conservative Liberal-National coalition government has been trailing the opposition Labor Party in opinion polls. A poll in early September put Labor eight points ahead, a margin strong enough to crush the government at an election due in just a year. Mr Abbott's combative approach and poor judgment on key issues did not appeal to many voters. A recent survey showed 41% of Australians would prefer Mr Turnbull as Liberal leader; a measly 15% preferred Mr Abbott.
 
Mr Turnbull’s timing was not accidental. A by-election is due on September 19th for the federal constituency of Canning in the state of Western Australia, on which many felt Mr Abbott’s political future might rest. Don Randall, the Liberal incumbent whose sudden death precipitated the election, held the seat with a 12% margin. Opinion polls showed that the Liberals were likely to lose much of that margin, and that voters in the seat disapproved of Mr Abbott by 54%, compared with just 39% who approved of him. (As it turns out, Mr Randall was among those who unsuccessfully tried to throw Mr Abbott’s leadership open to a ballot in February.)

At a press conference announcing his challenge, Mr Turnbull fiercely attacked Mr Abbott’s capacity to lead Australia. It was clear, he pronounced, that Australians had made up their minds about Mr Abbott’s leadership, and that he had “not been capable of providing the economic leadership our nation needs”. Julie Bishop, the foreign minister and the Liberals' deputy leader, reportedly told Mr Abbott she would support Mr Turnbull's challenge. Ms Bishop will now stay as Mr Turnbull's deputy. The challenge was also a contest about the party’s future direction. Mr Abbott belongs to the party’s conservative right wing; Mr Turnbull is a liberal progressive, who supports certain issues that Mr Abbott opposes, including gay marriage and making Australia a republic.

It is unlikely Mr Turnbull would have mounted such a bold challenge were he not confident that opponents within his party were prepared to accept him as leader. Backed by the party’s conservatives, Mr Abbott unseated Mr Turnbull as Liberal leader by one vote in late 2009. Up until now, the party’s conservatives had thwarted any ambitions Mr Turnbull had to seize the leadership back. But enough of them switched sides to install Mr Turnbull, apparently fearing the party could be heading for electoral oblivion under Mr Abbott. Indeed, now that Mr Turnbull has taken over, the Labor opposition is likely to have a more formidable political fight on its hands at the next election than it would have faced against Mr Abbott.