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Pseng-Pseng

22ii19

Hun Sen’s Successor: Sam Rainsy or Sar Kheng?

​​“This is why I need to say this again and again – while Hun Sen is holding power, a coup will not happen.”

Prime Minister Hun Sen, 25 January 2019, The Phnom Penh Post

«បើខ្ញុំឲ្យហ៊ុនសែនចាប់ខ្ញុំ ខ្ញុំក្លាយ ទៅជាកែមឡី ខ្ញុំក្លាយទៅជាកឹមសុខា។ ឥឡូវកែមឡីជាវីរបុរសមែន ប៉ុន្តែកែមឡីមានបានជួយប្រជាពលរដ្ឋ ឲ្យរំដោះខ្លួនពីរបបផ្ដាច់ការមកដល់ពេលនេះទេ? អត់ទេ។ លោកកឹមសុខាឲ្យហ៊ុនសែនចាប់ ឥឡូវនេះរងការឃុំឃាំងពីពន្ធនាគារ មកឃុំឃាំងក្នុងផ្ទះ អត់មានសេរីភាព តើជួយរំដោះប្រជាពលរដ្ឋ បានទេ? ជួយទៅ បំផុសបំផុលអន្តរជាតិបានទេ?... ខ្ញុំមិនទៅឆោត ឲ្យគេចាប់ងាយៗ ឲ្យគេសម្លាប់ងាយៗ ទេ។ យើងធ្វើអី យើងត្រូវតែលៃលកឲ្យ មានលទ្ធភាពឈ្នះ ឲ្យប្រជារាស្ត្រឈ្នះ យើងរៀបចំផែនការណាមួយដែលជោគជ័យ យើងមិនទៅធ្វើ លេងៗ ឲ្យគេកម្ចាត់យើងងាយៗ អ៊ីចឹងទេ។ បំណងរបស់ខ្ញុំ គឺចង់ឈ្នះដោយសន្តិវិធី។

ប្រធាន​ស្តីទី​គណបក្ស​សង្គ្រោះ​ជាតិ សម រង្ស៊ី ថ្ងៃ​ទី១៨ ខែកុម្ភៈ ​ ឆ្នាំ២០១៩ ភ្នំពេញប៉ុស្តិ៍

“គ្រប់​ជ័យ​ជម្នះរបស់​គណបក្ស​ប្រជាជន​កម្ពុជា មិន​មែន​កើត​ឡើង​ដោយ​សារ​តែអច្ឆរិយ​បុគ្គល​ណា​មួយ​ឡើយ តែ​គឺ​ជា​ការ​ប្រមូល​ផ្តុំ​នូវ​ការ​ខិត​ខំ​ប្រឹង​ប្រែងរបស់ថ្នាក់​ដឹក​នាំ និង​ការ​ចូល​រួម​គាំទ្រ​ពី​ប្រជាពលរដ្ឋ​ ។”

រដ្ឋមន្ត្រី​ក្រសួង​មហាផ្ទៃ ស ខេង ​ថ្ងៃ​ទី១១ ខែកុម្ភៈ ​ ឆ្នាំ២០១៩ វិទ្យុបារាំងអន្តរជាតិ

“គេមិនយកកម្លាំងយោធាទៅអនុវត្តន៍ដីកាទេ... មានអី នឹកយោធា ​ទៅប្រើយោធា  រដ្ឋច្បាស់អន្តរធាន ហើយ... យើងគិតតែមួយជ្រុង ពីយើងកាន់អំណាច ប៉ុន្តែកាន់អំណាច វាមិនមែនអាងទៅលើកំភ្លើង នោះទេ។ វាមិនមែនអញ្ចឹងទេ មិនមែនទេ។ ស្ថានការណ៏ឥឡូវនេះ គឺយើងលេងអញ្ចឹងអត់បាន ហើយទៅមុខនេះ រឹតតែមិនបានទៀត។”

រដ្ឋមន្រ្តីក្រសួងមហាផ្ទៃ ស​ខេង   ថ្ងៃទី១៣​ កុម្ភៈ ២០១៩   វិទ្យុអាស៊ីសេរី

Hun Sen has issued a stern warning: while he is charge, no coup d’état will ever happen, let alone succeed. He may or may not be right. There are two possible sources of a coup: Sam Rainsy revolt or a CPP insider.

The revolt is unlikely, despite a cacophony surrounding Sam Rainsy’s talk of going home. First, he is risk-averse, incapable of capitalising on what usually arises from jailed and/or dead heroes. He claims dead heroes like Kem Ley, cannot help liberating people from dictatorship. He says jailed Kem Sokha cannot and does not influence international opinions or actions.

Obviously, he trivialises impacts of jailed or dead heroes, like Gandhi, Mandela, Luther King, Aquino, etc… that initiate turning points in the world. He fails to fully appreciate why the US and EU currently put pressures on Hun Sen. Then again, for each dead or jailed hero in human history, there are thousands of politicians who are nothing more than just political irritations to their nemesis.

Second, Sam Rainsy still speaks of peaceful means when opposing a mafia-like Hun Sen whose ruthless killing is legendary. He may forget his previous humiliating encounters with Hun Sen when offering his written apologies to his nemesis in exchange for Hun Sen’s peace and mercy.

Sam Rainsy says he is waiting for a right moment to return.

Perhaps, after a CPP implosion that has tormented Hun Sen.

CPP’s Sar Kheng has already opened fires. First, he claims all the CPP victories have not been achieved by any single extraordinary person; they have come from a collective effort of the whole CPP leadership. Sar Kheng must be disgusted with the recently inaugurated Win-Win Monument that glorifies only Hun Sen. He demands the local media refer to the Royal Government of Cambodia, not “Hun Sen” government.

Second, Sar Kheng, who controls the police force, takes a firm stance against military groups that commit violent crackdowns on victims of land disputes in Preah Sihanouk and Kratie provinces. Even though he knows the military is under a full control of Hun Sen’s son and his close cohorts, Sar Kheng pulls no punches when declaring that powerful people cannot use armed forces to serve court orders. He is adamant they cannot rely on their guns, not now, not in the future. He has drawn a line in the sand.

A bad omen for Hun Sen is that Ministry of National Defence spokesman Chhum Socheat comes out to support Sar Kheng’s position. This should not, however, surprise Hun Sen as he knows Sar Kheng is well-connected. A secret ballot Hun Sen conducts in early January reveals the almost 1,000 members of the CPP Central Committee prefer Sar Kheng, not Hun Manet, as their next premier.

Anyhow, while it is uncertain who will be left standing after a duel of the CPP titans, the risk averse Sam Rainsy will miss out. A new Sar Kheng government would be unlikely to welcome him home and his role. He may remain a political outcast.

Ung Bun Ang

22ii19

Fake News You Can Use

After his trip to China, Hun Sen agrees to sit down with Pseng-Pseng Frank Chat.

FC:    According to you, Sire, your recent trip to China is very successful. Congratulations.

HS:   Yes, I rake in the Chinese yuan by the billion, and Xi’s special assurance that China will remain behind me all the way to fight the EU and US nonsensical trade pressures on me.

FC:    How did you convince China to do so much for you?

HS:   I reported to Xi, among other issues, the political situations in Cambodia after the general elections, government reform programs, my determination to prevent external interference into Cambodia’s internal affairs, and my request for more Chinese investors in Cambodia.

FC:    Did President Xi report to you internal political situations in China and his government programs for China?

HS:   No, he didn’t. Why should he? You must know China is a sovereign State adhering to a principle that it allows no foreigners, including me, to meddle in its internal affairs.

FC:    But why do you report Cambodian problems to China if, like you say, Cambodia is a sovereign state?

HS:   Well, you need to put out your dirty linen for your benefactor to see that you really need their assistance and what they can do to help.

FC:    So, when you ask foreigners for help sort out Cambodian internal affairs it is not an interference; otherwise, they are meddling. Is that right?

HS:   Yes, just like when I asked Vietnam to come in. It is a quintessence of my win-win policy – Vietnam wins, and I win.

FC:    Is it true that the CPP Central Committee choose Sar Kheng, not your son Manet, to succeed you?

HS:   Yes, but you know only my opinion counts.

FC:    Sorry, Sire, I must run now. I can hear something ticking…

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