Pseng-Pseng
5x19
Only He Can Rescue Hun Sen
…រៀបចំកម្លាំងស្អី? អ្នកឯងរៀបចំធ្វើអំពើភេរវកម្មហ៎? ត្រៀមប្រយុទ្ធហ៎? ប្រាប់ឲ្យហើយ ផ្ញើសារឲ្យទូទាំងប្រទេស បញ្ឈប់ទៅអាគណៈកម្មការចំពោះកិច្ច ទាំងនៅភ្នំពេញ នៅវាលវែង ខេត្តឯណាៗ គឺ និយាយឲ្យត្រង់ ឃើញមួយ វាយមួយទៅ។
នាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រី ហ៊ុនសែន ថ្ងៃទី២១ ខែមីនា ឆ្នាំ២០១៩ ភ្នំពេញប៉ុស្តិ៍
«យើងធ្វើអ៊ីចឹងវាហួសហេតុពេក យកប្រពៃណីធ្វើនយោបាយ វាអត់សមទេ។ ធ្វើនេះឲ្យពលរដ្ឋភ័យខ្លាច ដោយឡែកពលរដ្ឋតាមជនបទ គ្នាមិនទាន់ដឹងច្បាប់ដឹងទម្លាប់ គ្នាភ័យ។ ខ្លះចូលវត្ត ខ្លះក៏មិនចូលទៅ។ វាមិនចំណេញទេធ្វើអ៊ីចឹង។ បើនិយាយពីមន្ត្រីរាជការ ដូចទីងមោង ចង់ធ្វើអ្វីបានតាមចិត្ត។ នេះទីមួយប៉ះពាល់សតិអារម្មណ៍ពលរដ្ឋ ទី២ វាថោកខ្លួនឯង។ យើងជាថ្នាក់ដឹកនាំចុងក្រោយខ្លាចរាស្ត្រតូចតាចវិញ។ អាហ្នឹងគេហៅថា ថោកខ្លួនឯង»។
ពលរដ្ឋខេត្តស្ទឹងត្រែង លោក ថាន់ វ៉ន ថ្ងៃទី២៨ ខែកញ្ញា ឆ្នាំ២០១៩ វិទ្យុអាស៊ីសេរី
Now that the world leaves him out in the cold, Hun Sen is alone to fence off all assaults on his authority from both outside and inside the government.
Against outside foes, Hun Sen opts for a violent showdown. He has carried out his promise to smash every single opponent, perceived or otherwise, that pops up in his face. To date, 165 CNRP members have been summoned to court, 30 thrown in jail, one death in custody, physical assaults by hit and run assailants, and countless are in hiding. The numbers are mounting.
Nevertheless, it is puzzling if he is trying to prove right leaked outcomes of a series of market research he has commissioned since Sam Rainsy announced his 9/11 return, or if he just too anxiously reacts to the outcomes that he assumes are reliable.
The leaked research information paints a gloomy prospect for Hun Sen, which should not be surprising given what Hun Sen has done to the country in the past few decades. However, it includes some numbers that must unsettle Hun Sen. It says about 2 million people may turn up to welcome Sam Rainsy’s return. It is now clear why Hun Sen, who is a fervent betting man, ignores a proposed wager on a 2 million turnout. The estimate is about two-thirds of votes the CNRP receives in 2013 and 2017 elections.
Perhaps the numbers that drive Hun Sen into the violence overdrive are the information algorithms indicating that it is 98% certain that there will be a popular uprising, and the probability of Hun Sen bringing it under control is less than 1%.
The inability to control the uprising underlines armed forces cohesion, or lack of it, which is also addressed in the leaked information. It claims 65% of the armed forces would give heed to Sam Rainsy’s appeal for a mutiny, which leaves only 35% to Hun Sen.
It is uncertain how the divide has first come about, but it is likely to be perpetuated, if not exacerbated, by recent restructuring of the armed forces and Hun Sen’s reactions to the divide. First, Hun Sen’s fast promotion of his son Manet to a military top job may agitate many generals, especially those who lose out in the restructure and those who doubt Manet’s suitability. Second, a recent strip of Oknha title from numerous generals is a severe slap in the face in a regime that glorifies titles. Third, Hun Sen repeatedly threatens his generals their wealth is closely linked to him being in power. If he is gone, so will their riches. He may again demand all armed forces swear allegiance to him.
Anyhow, with the divide and the coming 9/11 challenge, Hun Sen has again instilled fear throughout the country. It is a portent that he fails to realise his fear card is consistently proved ineffective. Otherwise, nobody would now challenge his authority.
Yet, Hun Sen’s fortune can still be rescued, should Sam Rainsy lose his nerve and retire in Paris.
Ung Bun Ang
5x19
Funny News You Can Use
So, what is going on with a formal request Hun Sen says he has sent to all ASEAN members asking them to arrest and extradite Sam Rainsy to Cambodia for him?
Malaysia’s Mahathir says he has not received it. Cambodian Foreign Affairs Minister Prak Sokhon says he has sent it, but he may stuff it up somewhere in a diplomatic channel. Does he really want to have Sam Rainsy arrested and extradited for Hun Sen? Or he is just plain inefficient?
Still, Mahathir says he does not interfere in internal affairs of any country. Sokhon says non-interference is one thing and cooperation to arrest criminals is another. Smart answer from the Cambodian top diplomat.
But will Mahathir arrest the criminal in transit when Prak Sokhon implies the Malaysian prime Minister does not know any better? Does he really want Mahathir to arrest Sam Rainsy for Hun Sen? Hun Sen may think not.
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Pseng-Pseng is published irregularly. Previous issues are archived at pseng-pseng.blogspot.com
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