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Pseng-Pseng

Partitioning Ukraine, and then Cambodia

“Sam Rainsy can’t compare Cambodia to Ukraine.”

Government spokesman Phay Siphan, 26 Feb 2014

“We cannot accept the authority in Kiev. We are a different people, you understand?”

Ukrainian Woman in Crimea in support of deposed Yanukovych, 28 Feb 2014

“The future of Ukraine is in Europe and Ukraine will become a member of the European Union.”

Newly nominated Ukraine Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, 28 Feb 2014

"The only legitimate armed units on the territory of Crimea are the armed forces of Russia. The armed forces of any third state or any other state will be considered occupiers, with due consequences."

Crimean deputy prime minister Rustam Temurgaliyev, 7 March 2014

"If we see that lawlessness starting in eastern regions too, if people ask us for help, we reserve the right to use all options at our disposal to protect those citizens."

Russian President Vladimir Putin, 5 March, 2014

«ដែលមានព្រំដែន កាលពីមុនរដ្ឋាភិបាលថា មិនទាន់បោះបង្គោលព្រំដែនហើយ ថាមិនអាចធ្វើបាន ប៉ុន្តែដល់ពេលបោះបង្គោលព្រំដែនហើយ ប្រជាពលរដ្ឋខ្ញុំនេះ បែរជាធ្វើមិនបាន ហ្នឹងដែលជាកត្តាសំខាន់។ តើការបោះបង្គោលព្រំដែនរួចហើយហ្នឹង តើវៀតណាម ដែលរស់នៅក្នុងចម្ការកៅស៊ូដូចមកយាម ដែលជាចម្ការកៅស៊ូកម្ពុជានេះ ហើយមកដេកយាមនៅទីហ្នឹងនេះ សួរថា តើរដ្ឋាភិបាលគាត់គិតយ៉ាងណាបានជាហ៊ានបណ្ដោយឱ្យវៀតណាម ដែលជាជនក្រៅប្រទេសនេះ មកជាន់ឈ្លីទឹកដីកម្ពុជា?»។

ប្រជាពលរដ្ឋស្រុកពញាក្រែក លោក ញឹក ចាន់ធឿន ថ្ងៃទី៧ ខែវិច្ឆិកា ឆ្នាំ២០១៣

The parliament in the Ukraine region of Crimea has voted to become part of Russia, and will hold a referendum on 16 March to allow voters to rubber stamp the move to secede from Ukraine. Obama, NATO, and European Union will get a friendly government in Kiev, and in return, Putin will occupy Crimea and secure access to the city of Sevastopol and base for the Russian Black Sea fleet. There will be no need for a protracted military clash.

With a population of 8 millions, ethnic Russians form the largest ethnic minority in Ukraine (17.3% of the total population). Most of them live in the east and south of Ukraine, covering Sevastopol and Crimea. They speak Russian, and maintain particularly strong historic ties with Russia.

Phay Siphan may be right that Cambodia cannot be compared to Ukraine. Yet, beyond the simplistic view, some similarities are so striking that Cambodia may just be travelling toward the same fate in the foreseeable future.

Cambodia shares eastern border with Vietnam, just like Ukraine and Russia. CPP prime minister Hun Sen, appointed by the half-full National Assembly, often declares his profound gratitude to Vietnam for his reign.

To repay this debt of gratitude, the CPP has effectively an open door policy for Vietnamese migrants, and offers Vietnam huge economic land concessions, particularly along the border area, where Vietnamese is widely spoken. There are Vietnamese associations and schools throughout the country to protect Vietnamese interests, and spreading Vietnamese culture. The CPP prime minister now declares that “Mam” – a traditional Vietnamese delicacy – is one of Cambodian national dishes.

Besides the political and cultural influence and growing physical presence, Vietnam also sits on the top of the Cambodian economy. The Vietnamese army controls Metfone which operates telecommunication network throughout Cambodia, reaching 98% of the population. The Bank for Investment and Development of Cambodia, which is a subsidiary of Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam, is one of the top five in the country. By the end of 2013, Vietnam runs 127 Cambodia-based projects with a total registered investment capital of USD 3 billion, six times more in total investment, and treble the number of projects, compared to 2010’s numbers. Two-way trade between the two, grossly in favour of Vietnam, grows at 30% per year over the years, and likely to reach a staggering USD 5 billion by 2015.

While one half of the country welcomes such Vietnam’s overwhelming political and economic grip over Cambodia, the other half may not be so accommodating. A recent mob killing of an ethnic Vietnamese in Phnom Penh attests a potential explosion of the tension between the two.

Thus, if the not-so-happy half decides to rise up, the best outcome will be a partition of Cambodia into east and west, like in Ukraine. The growing ethnic Vietnamese communities in Cambodia along with Hun Sen will swear their allegiance to Vietnam, just like the ethnic Russians in Crimea and Sevastopol to Russia. The remaining population will look towards the West, searching for their soul, if not securing a Thai patronage like they did a few centuries ago.

An alternative outcome will be that Vietnam is allowed to assimilate Cambodia into Vietnam, just like it was with Prey Nokor, and more recently Koh Tral. The process will take so much time that it is likely to be painless.

Anyhow, a consolation is that there are always excuses to become an ethnic minority in your own country, isn’t it?

Ung Bun Ang

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