Indonesian Candidate Masters a System He Is Said to Disdain

International New York Times | 7 July 2014

JAKARTA, Indonesia — For a candidate accused of questioning the value of democracy, Prabowo Subianto appears to be a highly efficient campaigner.

Trailing by more than 20 percentage points in an opinion poll three months ago, Mr. Prabowo, a former army general, has surged in polls before Indonesia’s presidential election on Wednesday against Joko Widodo, the populist governor of Jakarta.

Campaigning officially ended on Saturday, and both camps have acknowledged that the race is too close to call. A nationwide survey released on June 29 by Indo Barometer, a respected polling company, indicated that Mr. Joko held only a three-point lead over Mr. Prabowo.

Mr. Prabowo, who said at a campaign event last month that elections run counter to Indonesian culture, has wooed voters with his nationalist message and the vow of strong leadership. He has been accused of human rights abuses as the commander of Indonesia’s Special Forces and as head of the army strategic reserve command under the authoritarian President Suharto, his father-in-law.

Prabowo Subianto, a former army general, has surged in polls before Indonesia’s presidential election on Wednesday. Credit Romeo Gacad/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

But analysts say voters are not fearful that the democratization that has occurred since Mr. Suharto’s resignation 16 years ago may be rolled back.

“Among voters, this is not a referendum on democracy,” said Douglas Ramage, a Jakarta-based political analyst.

“It’s more of a referendum on the Yudhoyono years,” he said, referring to the departing president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. “Voters are fatigued and are ready to try something else.”

Mr. Yudhoyono, who took office in 2004 and is barred from a third five-year term, guided Indonesia to impressive economic growth and nurtured its nascent democracy, but he is widely criticized as indecisive and as having turned a blind eye to violence against religious minorities.

Both candidates represent parties in opposition during Mr. Yudhoyono’s tenure and have run on platforms promising change. But the similarities end there: Mr. Joko, 53, is a former provincial mayor and businessman who has pledged a more “people-friendly” government to help the poor. Mr. Prabowo, 62, who comes from a prominent Javanese political family, has promoted bold infrastructure and agriculture projects and vowed to prevent foreign interests plundering the country’s natural resources.

“It’s two different visions for Indonesia,” said Hashim Djojohadikusumo, Mr. Prabowo’s brother and senior economic adviser. “It’s two different characters.”

Mr. Joko campaigned for better health care and education, speaking at Islamic boarding schools and traditional markets, where he was mobbed by working-class Indonesians who grabbed at his clothes. Mr. Prabowo spoke to stadiums of middle- and upper-class supporters, using booming language tinged with military symbolism, sometimes arriving by private jet and once riding in on a white horse.

Mr. Joko has chided his opponent for his privileged background and European education, while Mr. Prabowo’s campaign has characterized Mr. Joko as a small-town official not up to leading the world’s fourth-most-populous country.

“I think that the country is clearly polarized in two camps,” said Thamrin Amal Tomagola, a sociologist at the University of Indonesia, who said there was a prospect of violence if the result was not decisive.

Mr. Joko has categorized the election as a race between the country’s rich and poor. Indonesia has around 100 million people who live on $2 a day or less, and incomes among poorer Indonesians are rising at a slower pace than those of their more affluent compatriots.

“I’m sure that people want a leader who knows the people, who knows what the people need, who knows what the people want,” Mr. Joko said in an interview last week as he campaigned in Banten Province in the West Java region.

Mr. Joko is the first presidential candidate since the country began holding direct elections in 2004 who was not involved in politics during the final years of Mr. Suharto’s 31-year tenure, which was marred by rights abuses and corruption. Mr. Joko, a former carpenter and furniture dealer, was first elected to office as a mayor in 2005. 

But Mr. Prabowo’s campaign has rejected claims that the vote is a choice between a reformer and someone from the country’s authoritarian past. “He’s not the angel that you guys seem to think he is,” Mr. Hashim said of Mr. Joko.

There have been smear campaigns against each candidate, but Mr. Joko has been targeted far more. He has spent much of his time trying to assure voters that he is a Muslim despite assertions that he is a Christian of Chinese descent in a country where many resent the often wealthier ethnic Chinese.

Mr. Hashim asserted that surrogates for Mr. Joko had spread false rumors that Mr. Prabowo is anti-Chinese, anti-Christian and anti-Buddhist. While Mr. Joko has refrained from personal attacks, senior members of his campaign have blasted Mr. Prabowo’s military record and questioned his mental stability.

Muhammad Qodari, executive director of Indo Barometer, said Mr. Joko had clearly been hurt more by negative campaigning. “This is a political battle, and the one who fights harder and harsher wins,” Mr. Qodari said. “It’s not enough to just be considered a nice guy to win the right to run a country.”